Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 3rd Edition

see url Figures Foreword by John McLaughlin Preface Chapter 1 • Introduction and Overview 1.1 Our Vision 1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book 1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters Chapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques 2.1 Two Types of Thinking 2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques 2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations 2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques 2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation Chapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique 3.1 The Six Families 3.2 Core Techniques 3.3 Selecting the Right Technique 3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques 3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques 3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques Chapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration 4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams 4.2 Dividing the Work 4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes 4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups 4.5 Benefiting from Diversity 4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry 4.7 Leadership and Training Chapter 5 • Getting Organized 5.1 Sorting 5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing 5.2.1 The Method: Ranked Voting 5.2.2 The Method: Paired Comparison 5.2.3 The Method: Weighted Ranking 5.3 Matrices 5.4 Process Maps 5.5 Gantt Charts Chapter 6 • Exploration Techniques 6.1 Simple Brainstorming 6.2 Cluster Brainstorming 6.3 Nominal Group Technique 6.4 Circleboarding™ 6.5 Starbursting 6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps 6.7 Venn Analysis 6.8 Network Analysis Chapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques 7.1 Key Assumptions Check 7.2 Chronologies and Timelines 7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix 7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation 7.4.1 The Method: Simple Hypotheses 7.4.2 The Method: Quadrant Hypothesis Generation 7.4.3 The Method: Multiple Hypotheses Generator® 7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning 7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™ 7.8 Deception Detection 7.9 Argument Mapping Chapter 8 • Reframing Techniques 8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques 8.1.1 Outside-In Thinking 8.1.2 Structured Analogies 8.1.3 Red Hat Analysis 8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques 8.2.1 Quadrant Crunching™ 8.2.2 Premortem Analysis 8.2.3 Structured Self-Critique 8.2.4 What If? Analysis 8.2.5 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis 8.2.6 Delphi Method 8.3 Conflict Management Techniques 8.3.1 Adversarial Collaboration 8.3.2 Structured Debate Chapter 9 • Foresight Techniques 9.1 Key Drivers Generation™ 9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™ 9.3 Reversing Assumptions 9.4 Simple Scenarios 9.5 Cone of Plausibility 9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis 9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation 9.8 Morphological Analysis 9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning 9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives 9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation 9.11.1 The Method: Indicators Generation 9.11.2 The Method: Indicators Validation 9.11.3 The Method: Indicators Evaluation Chapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques 10.1 Opportunities Incubator™ 10.2 Bowtie Analysis 10.3 Impact Matrix 10.4 SWOT Analysis 10.5 Critical Path Analysis 10.6 Decision Trees 10.7 Decision Matrix 10.8 Force Field Analysis 10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes 10.10 Complexity Manager Chapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques 11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis 11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques 11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques 11.3.1 Structuring the Data 11.3.2 Identifying Key Drivers 11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030